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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP