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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 88

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 3-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 88, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model