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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP