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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.53 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP