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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 97-Ca.Heyward reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 45 for no gain (97-B.Urban; 0-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.87 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model