Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI defense: -0.181 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.231 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- WAS on 3 more days rest than PHI
- Tanner McKee (PHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
- QB edge to PHI: Tanner McKee (PHI) +0.175 vs Josh Johnson (WAS) +0.205 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Tanner McKee in place of Jalen Hurts)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
WAS
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 13:43 TD PHI (13:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 81-G.Calcaterra for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – PHI 6
- Q2 09:08 TD WAS (9:08) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – PHI 7
- Q2 00:05 FG WAS (:05) 16-J.Moody 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 10 – PHI 7
- Q3 06:33 TD PHI (6:33) 37-T.Bigsby left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 13
- Q3 00:35 FG PHI (:35) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. WAS 10 – PHI 17
- Q4 09:40 TD WAS (9:40) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 14-J.Johnson pass short right to 87-J.Bates for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – PHI 17
- Q4 02:37 TD WAS (2:37) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 14-J.Johnson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – PHI 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 29%
(12:31) 10-B.Mann punts 35 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by PHI-29-A.Dillon.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 44%
(7:25) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 39 for 5 yards (0-J.Uche).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(2:36) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 98%
(4:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Calcaterra [55-J.Martin].
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Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:01) 10-T.Way punts 63 yards to PHI 9, impetus ends at PHI 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(11:45) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 88-R.Cracraft to WAS 33 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(4:59) 10-T.Way punts 43 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-B.Covey to PHI 27 for 8 yards (51-A.Kaho).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%
(:35) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 52%
(8:44) 10-B.Mann punts 36 yards to WAS 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 31 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 77%
(1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59%
(1:04) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-B.Covey to PHI 28 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 17 at the 79 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 31%
(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 2-J.Dotson.