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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 88-R.Cracraft to WAS 33 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model