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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 44

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 39 for 5 yards (0-J.Uche).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.85 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model