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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 61

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-B.Covey to PHI 28 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.71 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -1.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model