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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 6

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 16-J.Moody 24 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 6, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP