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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 10-B.Mann punts 35 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by PHI-29-A.Dillon.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model