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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(:35) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +1.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model