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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 72

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 10-T.Way punts 63 yards to PHI 9, impetus ends at PHI 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model