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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 10-B.Mann punts 36 yards to WAS 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.66 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP