Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 62

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(4:59) 10-T.Way punts 43 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-B.Covey to PHI 27 for 8 yards (51-A.Kaho).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.69 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model