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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +0.94 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.29 EP