Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 24

(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.27 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 79, worth -1.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP