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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right to 81-G.Calcaterra [55-J.Martin].

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model