Value Picks — Week 13

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

GB @ DET Disagrees with the line

Model: GB 63.2% Line: DET 57.3% 20.5-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ WAS

Model: DEN 52.3% Line: DEN 68.5% 16.2-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ BAL

Model: BAL 59.2% Line: BAL 69.8% 10.6-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ CLE

Model: SF 72.4% Line: SF 65.8% 6.6-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ SEA

Model: SEA 88.6% Line: SEA 82.3% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ LAC

Model: LAC 71.2% Line: LAC 77.1% 5.9-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ DAL

Model: KC 55.2% Line: KC 60.2% 5.0-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ NE

Model: NE 65.6% Line: NE 69.8% 4.2-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ PHI

Model: PHI 65.7% Line: PHI 69.8% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ PIT

Model: BUF 55.1% Line: BUF 58.8% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ MIA

Model: MIA 68.9% Line: MIA 65.8% 3.1-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ IND

Model: IND 61.2% Line: IND 58.8% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ TEN

Model: JAX 64.8% Line: JAX 67.2% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ CAR

Model: LA 75.5% Line: LA 77.1% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ NYJ

Model: ATL 57.9% Line: ATL 58.8% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ TB

Model: TB 62.8% Line: TB 63.1% 0.3-pt gap vs. the line