Value Picks — Week 12

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

NYG @ DET

Model: DET 66.9% Line: DET 85.0% 18.1-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ BAL

Model: BAL 70.9% Line: BAL 85.0% 14.1-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ LV

Model: LV 71.5% Line: LV 58.8% 12.7-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ DAL Disagrees with the line

Model: DAL 53.0% Line: PHI 58.8% 11.8-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ HOU

Model: BUF 55.7% Line: BUF 65.8% 10.1-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ TEN

Model: SEA 72.2% Line: SEA 82.3% 10.1-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ ARI Disagrees with the line

Model: ARI 51.9% Line: JAX 57.3% 9.2-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ GB

Model: GB 77.1% Line: GB 68.5% 8.6-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ SF

Model: SF 66.0% Line: SF 71.1% 5.1-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ KC

Model: KC 55.3% Line: KC 60.2% 4.9-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ NO

Model: NO 50.3% Line: NO 54.4% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ CIN

Model: NE 74.1% Line: NE 71.1% 3.0-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ CHI

Model: CHI 61.2% Line: CHI 58.8% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ LA

Model: LA 69.0% Line: LA 69.8% 0.8-pt gap vs. the line