Value Picks — Week 12

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

NYG @ DET

Model: DET 68.1% Line: DET 85.0% 16.9-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ BAL

Model: BAL 73.3% Line: BAL 85.0% 11.7-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ HOU

Model: BUF 57.2% Line: BUF 65.8% 8.6-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ LV

Model: LV 67.4% Line: LV 58.8% 8.6-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ TEN

Model: SEA 74.7% Line: SEA 82.3% 7.6-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ GB

Model: GB 75.9% Line: GB 68.5% 7.4-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ NO Disagrees with the line

Model: ATL 51.5% Line: NO 54.4% 5.9-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ DAL

Model: PHI 55.0% Line: PHI 58.8% 3.8-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ CHI

Model: CHI 55.1% Line: CHI 58.8% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ CIN

Model: NE 73.8% Line: NE 71.1% 2.7-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ SF

Model: SF 69.2% Line: SF 71.1% 1.9-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ ARI

Model: JAX 55.5% Line: JAX 57.3% 1.8-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ KC

Model: KC 58.6% Line: KC 60.2% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ LA

Model: LA 71.2% Line: LA 69.8% 1.4-pt gap vs. the line