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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

PHI
47.0%
DAL
53.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PHI defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.147 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.157 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Foot
Cam Jurgens C Questionable Concussion
Myles Hinton T Questionable Back
Willie Lampkin C Questionable Knee

DAL

Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Shoulder
Hakeem Adeniji T Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 21
–
DAL 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:45 TD PHI (8:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-Q.Williams]. PHI 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 01:02 TD PHI (1:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – DAL 0
  • Q2 11:35 TD PHI (11:35) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – DAL 0
  • Q2 00:24 TD DAL (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – DAL 6
  • Q3 02:07 TD DAL (2:07) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Spann-Ford for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [3-N.Smith]. PHI 21 – DAL 13
  • Q4 11:48 TD DAL (11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – DAL 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG DAL (:03) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 21 – DAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 37%

    (11:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:13) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to PHI 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:00) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:45) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to DAL 7, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 8 for 1 yard (42-S.Mondon).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:38) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to PHI 26, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 41 for 15 yards (40-H.Luepke; 29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on PHI-0-J.Uche, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%

    (9:24) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to DAL 4, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-21-S.Brown.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

    (6:39) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 32%

    (4:25) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 67%

    (13:14) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:25) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (38-A.Clark; 14-M.Bell). FUMBLES (38-A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-44-T.Sieg at PHI 8. PHI-87-X.Gipson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Ferguson [3-N.Smith].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 20 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:44) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DAL 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for no gain. PENALTY on DAL-9-K.Turpin, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (:03) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.