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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 1

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Ferguson [3-N.Smith].

The Three Options

GO +3.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model