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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 38

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.69 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP