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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to PHI 26, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 41 for 15 yards (40-H.Luepke; 29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on PHI-0-J.Uche, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP