4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to DAL 4, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-21-S.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP