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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 82

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 82, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 40, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model