Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 7

(13:45) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to DAL 7, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 8 for 1 yard (42-S.Mondon).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.24 EP
57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model