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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(:03) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +1.72 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model