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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.71 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP