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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.36 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model