Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- CLE offense: -0.200 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- QB edge to LV: Geno Smith (LV) -0.100 vs Shedeur Sanders (CLE) -0.800 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Shedeur Sanders in place of Dillon Gabriel)
- CLE defense: -0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 12
CLE
LV
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:29 TD CLE (8:29) (Shotgun) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: LV-11-J.Chinn has returned to the game. CLE 6 – LV 0
- Q1 00:52 TD CLE (:52) (Shotgun) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – LV 0
- Q2 09:16 FG LV (9:16) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. CLE 14 – LV 3
- Q4 12:13 FG CLE (12:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 17 – LV 3
- Q4 08:29 TD CLE (8:29) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 22-D.Sampson for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – LV 3
- Q4 05:16 TD LV (5:16) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 24 – LV 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 58%
(12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to LV 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to LV 27 for 44 yards (6-A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-6-A.Cole, Tripping, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 19 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(7:06) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to CLE 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-50-J.Bobenmoyer.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to LV 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:17) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to CLE 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%
(11:33) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%
(9:16) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to LV 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(2:30) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to CLE 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 28 for 8 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(1:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to LV 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-A.Bachman to LV 23 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit; 5-R.Jenkins).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 55%
(11:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 48 for -9 yards (sack split by 99-C.Thomas and 96-M.Collins).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%
(9:14) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
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Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:18) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to CLE 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 28 for 5 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 23.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:46) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to LV 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 35 for 9 yards (41-C.Edmonds).
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 91%
(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.
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Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to CLE 33, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
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Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(5:16) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 72 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to LV 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 29 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%
(:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 19 yards to LV 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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