4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 48 for -9 yards (sack split by 99-C.Thomas and 96-M.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model