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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to LV 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-A.Bachman to LV 23 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit; 5-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.71 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model