Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to LV 27 for 44 yards (6-A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-6-A.Cole, Tripping, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model