Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(3:17) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to CLE 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.21 EP
54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model