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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 19 yards to LV 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.17 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP