4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 23

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model