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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

IND
44.7%
KC
55.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.219 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.191 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • IND on 7 more days rest than KC
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.165 vs Daniel Jones (IND) +0.125 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 24
–
KC 26
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

IND

Jaylon Carlies LB Out Ankle

KC

Isiah Pacheco RB Out Knee
Kingsley Suamataia G Questionable Concussion
Xavier Worthy WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20
–
KC 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:15 TD IND (8:15) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 14:55 FG KC (14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 7 – KC 3
  • Q2 10:36 TD IND (10:36) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 85-A.Ogletree for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis]. IND 13 – KC 3
  • Q2 02:24 FG KC (2:24) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 14 – KC 6
  • Q2 00:10 FG KC (:10) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 14 – KC 9
  • Q3 09:16 FG IND (9:16) 12-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 17 – KC 9
  • Q3 01:29 FG IND (1:29) 12-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – KC 9
  • Q4 08:41 TD KC (8:41) (Shotgun) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – KC 15
  • Q4 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 20 – KC 20
  • Q5 02:00 FG KC (2:00) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 20 – KC 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to KC 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-59-C.McDonald, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (6:32) 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 44 for 1 yard (53-G.Pratt).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (2:24) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 15 for no gain (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:29) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to IND 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 37 for 21 yards (59-C.McDonald).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 96%

    (9:16) 12-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:27) 14-M.Araiza punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 26 for 19 yards (21-J.Hicks).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (1:29) 12-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to KC 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 44 for 7 yards (25-R.Thomas; 59-B.Johnson).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (7:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to KC 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:55) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to IND 40, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 49 for 9 yards (6-B.Cook).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%

    (4:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to KC 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 14 for 3 yards (38-C.Lammons). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 11.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 51%

    (3:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 19 yards (0-C.Bynum).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.