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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 96

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to KC 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 44 for 7 yards (25-R.Thomas; 59-B.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.49 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 96, worth -5.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model