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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to KC 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.08 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP