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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to KC 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 14 for 3 yards (38-C.Lammons). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model