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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model