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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 44 for 1 yard (53-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.26 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model