4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

JAX
48.1%
ARI
51.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to ARI: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.039 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.079 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 23
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

JAX

Hunter Long TE Out Hip
Travon Walker DE Out Knee
Yasir Abdullah LB Out Finger
Anton Harrison T Out Knee
Brian Thomas Jr. WR Out Ankle
Jourdan Lewis CB Questionable Neck
Brenton Strange TE Questionable Hip
Jarrian Jones CB Questionable Quadricep

ARI

Baron Browning LB Out Concussion
Emari Demercado RB Out Ankle
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Out Illness
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Out Ankle
Trey Benson RB Out Knee
Hayden Conner G Out Knee
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Groin
Will Hernandez G Questionable Ankle
Garrett Williams CB Questionable Ankle
Darius Robinson DT Questionable Groin
Will Johnson CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 27
–
ARI 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 TD JAX (7:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 1-T.Etienne for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 02:34 TD ARI (2:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 3 for -9 yards (34-J.Thompson). FUMBLES (34-J.Thompson), RECOVERED by ARI-97-W.Nolen at JAX 7. 97-W.Nolen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 13:01 FG JAX (13:01) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – ARI 7
  • Q2 07:36 TD ARI (7:36) 78-J.Fryar and 71-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – ARI 13
  • Q3 08:15 TD JAX (8:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – ARI 14
  • Q4 07:19 TD ARI (7:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-G.Dortch for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – ARI 20
  • Q4 03:54 TD JAX (3:54) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – ARI 21
  • Q4 00:06 FG ARI (:06) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. JAX 24 – ARI 24
  • Q5 07:51 FG JAX (7:51) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 27 – ARI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 14 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (9:48) 39-M.Haack punts 50 yards to JAX 3, impetus ends at JAX 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-27-A.Davis-Gaither.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 75%

    (13:01) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (:17) 38-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:12) 39-M.Haack punts 54 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at ARI 27 for 43 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 16-M.Melton).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 18 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%

    (1:43) 39-M.Haack punts 38 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to ARI 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:40) 39-M.Haack punts 65 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-M.Melton. ** Injury Update: JAX-11-P.Washington has returned to the game.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 4-G.Dortch (25-R.Lane) [47-D.Gardeck].

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (1:44) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Patrick. Penalty on JAX, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Carter up the middle to ARI 37 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard).