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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Patrick. Penalty on JAX, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.27 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model