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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to ARI 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.49 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP