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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model