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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Carter up the middle to ARI 37 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.77 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -1.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model