Value Picks — Week 11

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

CHI @ MIN Disagrees with the line

Model: CHI 70.5% Line: MIN 58.8% 29.3-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ NE

Model: NE 72.7% Line: NE 82.3% 9.6-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ LV

Model: DAL 69.6% Line: DAL 60.2% 9.4-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ NYG

Model: GB 63.1% Line: GB 71.1% 8.0-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ MIA Disagrees with the line

Model: WAS 50.6% Line: MIA 57.3% 7.9-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ BUF

Model: BUF 59.9% Line: BUF 67.2% 7.3-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ ATL

Model: ATL 56.8% Line: ATL 63.1% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ PIT

Model: PIT 59.9% Line: PIT 65.8% 5.9-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ DEN

Model: KC 54.3% Line: KC 60.2% 5.9-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ PHI

Model: PHI 52.5% Line: PHI 57.3% 4.8-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ CLE

Model: BAL 66.8% Line: BAL 71.1% 4.3-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ TEN

Model: HOU 69.7% Line: HOU 65.8% 3.9-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ ARI

Model: SF 56.6% Line: SF 60.2% 3.6-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ JAX

Model: LAC 56.5% Line: LAC 58.8% 2.3-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ LA

Model: LA 60.4% Line: LA 58.8% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line