Value Picks — Week 19

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

LAC @ NE

Model: NE 79.5% Line: NE 60.2% 19.3-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ PHI Disagrees with the line

Model: SF 50.4% Line: PHI 67.2% 17.6-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ PIT Disagrees with the line

Model: PIT 58.2% Line: HOU 58.8% 17.0-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ CAR

Model: LA 66.5% Line: LA 77.1% 10.6-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ CHI

Model: GB 50.9% Line: GB 57.3% 6.4-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ JAX

Model: JAX 56.8% Line: JAX 54.4% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line